Table 2.
Prognostication accuracy in the full cohort and stratified across major disease groups. Full prognosis cohort includes individuals with a primary diagnosis classified as “cancer”, “dementia/frailty”, “heart disease”, “respiratory disease” and “other”. Shaded cells for the “Prediction” and “Survival” denote those for whom the prediction was accurate. Weighted Kappa denotes the agreement between prognostication outcome and survival, the higher the value the better the prognostic ability. Q1 First quartile, the value in the dataset that holds 25% of the values below it. Q3 Third Quartile, the value in the dataset that holds 25% of the values above it
| Survival (n, % of row total) | Median survival (Days) | Interquartile range(Days) | Weighted Kappa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prognostic accuracy table—Full prognosis cohort (Overall 62% agreement between prediction and survival) | |||||||||
| Prediction | Days | Weeks | Months | Years | Σ (% grand total) | Q1 | Q3 | 0.634 | |
| Days | 2,420 (74.2%) | 412 (12.6%) | 173 (5.3%) | 255 (7.8%) | 3,260 (3.3%) | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| Weeks | 4,415 (35.4%) | 3,972 (31.9%) | 2,364 (19.0%) | 1,706 (13.7%) | 12,457 (12.7%) | 24 | 8 | 86 | |
| Months | 2,256 (8.3%) | 5,976 (22.0%) | 8,738 (32.2%) | 10,153 (37.4%) | 27,123 (27.6%) | 146 | 41 | 535 | |
| Years | 585 (1.1%) | 1,916 (3.5%) | 6,926 (12.5%) | 45,920 (83.0%) | 55,347 (56.4%) | 639 | 456 | 914 | |
| Σ (% grand total) | 9,676 (9.9%) | 12,276 (12.5%) | 18,201 (18.5%) | 58,034 (59.1%) | 98,187 | ||||
| Prognostic accuracy table—Patients with Cancer | |||||||||
| Prediction | Days | Weeks | Months | Years | Σ (% grand total) | Q1 | Q3 | 0.725 | |
| Days | 1,049 (79.5%) | 184 (13.9%) | 60 (4.5%) | 27 (2.0%) | 1,320 (4.8%) | 4 | 2 | 11 | |
| Weeks | 2,500 (37.5%) | 2,496 (37.5%) | 1,207 (18.1%) | 459 (6.9%) | 6,662 (24.1%) | 21 | 9 | 56 | |
| Months | 1,236 (9.6%) | 3,860 (29.8%) | 4,919 (38.0%) | 2,919 (22.6%) | 12,934 (46.8%) | 83 | 32 | 239 | |
| Years | 101 (1.5%) | 510 (7.6%) | 1,544 (23.0%) | 4,564 (67.9%) | 6,719 (24.3%) | 578 | 200 | 730 | |
| Σ (% grand total) | 4,886 (17.7%) | 7,050 (25.5%) | 7,730 (28.0%) | 7,969 (28.8%) | 27,635 | ||||
| Prognostic accuracy table—Patients with Dementia/Frailty | |||||||||
| Prediction | Days | Weeks | Months | Years | Σ (% grand total) | Q1 | Q3 | 0.749 | |
| Days | 550 (74.9%) | 67 (9.1%) | 40 (5.4%) | 77 (10.5%) | 734 (3.6%) | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| Weeks | 866 (38.4%) | 449 (19.9%) | 402 (17.8%) | 541 (24.0%) | 2,258 (11.0%) | 28 | 7 | 261 | |
| Months | 463 (8.4%) | 690 (12.5%) | 1,374 (24.9%) | 2,987 (54.1%) | 5,514 (26.9%) | 395 | 80 | 670 | |
| Years | 206 (1.7%) | 502 (4.2%) | 1,856 (15.5%) | 9,405 (78.6%) | 11,969 (58.5%) | 609 | 395 | 761 | |
| Σ (% grand total) | 2,085 (10.2%) | 1,708 (8.3%) | 3,672 (17.9%) | 13,000 (63.5%) | 20,475 | ||||
| Prognostic accuracy table—Patients with Heart Disease | |||||||||
| Prediction | Days | Weeks | Months | Years | Σ (% grand total) | Q1 | Q3 | 0.666 | |
| Days | 247 (69.2%) | 48 (13.4%) | 19 (5.3%) | 43 (12.0%) | 357 (2.4%) | 4 | 1 | 20 | |
| Weeks | 408 (36.2%) | 267 (23.7%) | 231 (20.5%) | 220 (19.5%) | 1,126 (7.5%) | 30 | 7 | 174 | |
| Months | 250 (9.5%) | 370 (14.1%) | 709 (26.9%) | 1302 (49.5%) | 2,631 (17.6%) | 308 | 61 | 639 | |
| Years | 114 (1.1%) | 291 (2.7%) | 1096 (10.1%) | 9350 (86.2%) | 10,851 (72.5%) | 639 | 517 | 1064 | |
| Σ (% grand total) | 1,019 (6.8%) | 976 (6.5%) | 2,056 (13.7%) | 10,914 (72.9%) | 14,965 | ||||
| Prognostic accuracy table—Patients with Respiratory disease | |||||||||
| Prediction | Days | Weeks | Months | Years | Σ (% grand total)) | Q1 | Q3 | 0.660 | |
| Days | 122 (63.5%) | 23 (12.0%) | 12 (6.3%) | 35 (18.2%) | 192 (2.4%) | 5 | 1 | 34 | |
| Weeks | 201 (35.1%) | 132 (23.1%) | 112 (19.6%) | 127 (22.2%) | 572 (7.2%) | 34 | 8 | 234 | |
| Months | 139 (8.2%) | 293 (17.4%) | 526 (31.2%) | 728 (43.2%) | 1,686 (21.3%) | 220 | 54 | 609 | |
| Years | 44 (0.8%) | 138 (2.5%) | 630 (11.5%) | 4,664 (85.2%) | 5,476 (69.1%) | 639 | 517 | 806 | |
| Σ (% grand total) | 506 (6.4%) | 586 (7.4%) | 1,280 (16.1%) | 5,554 (70.1%) | 7,926 | ||||